Designed by Kelly Emrick, DHSc, PhD, MBA
Operations Predictor
Interactive Probability Modeling for Healthcare Scenarios. Adjust the variables below to simulate Emergency Department (ED) outcomes, wait times, and resource bottlenecks using stochastic estimation logic.
STEP 1 Define Scenario Inputs
Arrivals per hour estimation.
Nurse & Physician coverage.
ESI Level distribution.
Operational Failure Probability
Likelihood of LWBS (Left Without Being Seen) > 5%.
Based on Queuing Theory, as utilization approaches 100%, wait times increase exponentially, not linearly. This gauge represents the probability that the system reaches a “tipping point” where safety is compromised.
Department Strain Analysis
Predicted capacity utilization by unit.
Bottlenecks often shift based on acuity. High acuity jams the ICU/Inpatient flow, while high volume jams Triage and Fast Track.
Predicted Wait Time Velocity (24h)
Forecasted “Door-to-Doc” times based on current simulation inputs.
This projection uses a standard Poisson Arrival Process adjusted for the staffing constraint selected above. Notice how recovery time lags significantly behind volume drops when staffing is critical.
Patient Journey Bottleneck Locator
Based on your inputs, the system identifies the probable choke point in the workflow. Red borders indicate critical failure points.
Arrival
Registration & Check-in
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Triage
Acuity Assessment
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Treatment
MD Evaluation & Labs
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Disposition
Admit or Discharge